Not Alot of Clients Right Now? Here’s What You Should Be Doing

The ebb and flow of the real estate business can be affected by the seasons, the economy and more. Here’s how to weather the slow times while building your business.

Article Originally Published by Inman Connect
February 17, 2023

I sell real estate in Lake Tahoe, a seasonal and second-homeowner destination. Due to our unique market, I’ve become accustomed to the inevitable slowdowns every fall and spring.

At the beginning of my career, it wasn’t easy to normalize the downtime and find productivity in my business, even without clients. I would become anxious, stressed and paranoid until I found ways to utilize my free time efficiently.

Below are a few steps that you can implement in your business when you’re low on clients:

1. Remind yourself that every single agent, even the most successful agents making millions of dollars every year, experience lulls in their business

We’ll have highs, lows and everything in between. So while you’re having your best year, I could be having my worst year. That doesn’t mean you won’t ever sell a house again; it just means that the timing of your clients, or future clients, hasn’t reached the inflection point of a sale yet.

There’s Freedom in Saying No, Setting Boundaries, Saying Goodbye

If you don’t set boundaries, you can’t expect clients to respect them. Set firm boundaries, and communicate them upfront.

Article Originally Published by Inman Connect
February 15, 2023

As real estate agents and brokers, it seems as though many of us are programmed to always say the magic word “yes.”

Yes, we can squeeze 21 showings in one day despite them being on completely opposite sides of town. Yes, I can talk at 11 p.m. Yes, I will “make” the sellers fix every item on the home inspection list.

Scarcity is typically the main driving force behind the obsessive “yes” in our business, but I think for many of us, it can contribute to a downfall in our personal life and burnout in our professional life.

We’re scared that if we don’t answer every call as it is coming in, the lead on the other end may hang up and call someone else. And while that may be true, what do we, in turn, sacrifice to catch every potential lead that comes our way?

If every lead turned into a sale, then perhaps most, or at least some, of the yeses are warranted. But if they don’t always convert, and let’s be honest, we know they don’t, then we owe it to ourselves to be more mindful of what type of interruptions we are allowing into our lives.

Fed Chair is Back After Strong Jobs Report

After last week’s surprisingly strong Jobs Report, Fed Chair Jerome Powell spoke about the economy and direction of rates. Let’s walk through what happened and what to watch in the week ahead.

“Cause I’m Back, Yes, I’m Back” – Back in Black by AC/DC.

“The strong Jobs Report shows you why we think this will be a process that takes a significant period of time.” Fed Chair Powell 2/7/23.

BY EPHRAIM SCHWARTZ
Partner, Mortgage Consultant CMPS
O’Dette Mortgage Group
February 14, 2023

 

The Federal Reserve has a dual mandate, which is to maintain price stability (inflation) and promote maximum employment. On the inflation front, it appears inflation has indeed peaked and is on the decline. The Fed Chair reiterated the “disinflationary process” has begun. This is a positive development for the economy, housing, and long-term rates.

On the labor market front of the Fed’s mandate, the Fed in its desire to slow demand and thus inflation, wants to see some unemployment. The good news/bad news? Last week, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported the unemployment rate at 3.4%, the lowest in 53 years…that is good news. The bad news is it means the Fed will look to raise rates by .25% in March and another .25% in May, thereby lifting the Fed Funds Rate above 5.00%.

This renewed outlook for a higher Fed Funds Rate has elevated uncertainty and volatility in long-term rates, which move up and down based on economic conditions and inflation, both of which are easing and a reason why long-term rates are lower than short-term rates.

“Likely to see some softening in labor market conditions” – Powell

This is a reasonable assumption considering the number of planned layoffs announced this year, while we sit at multi-decade low unemployment, it seems like up is the only direction for unemployment.

Soft Landing Back in Play

Due to the current strength of the labor market, there is a growing chance the Fed can raise rates and lower inflation towards its 2.00% target without triggering a deep recession.

History has shown that recessions do not take place with unemployment at 4% or below without some sort of surprise shock to the economy.

Let’s hope the Fed is not too successful in “creating” unemployment because if it quickly rises, the idea of a soft economic landing could go away quickly too.

3.70%

As we mentioned, long-term rates have responded negatively to last week’s strong jobs report, because good news is bad news for bonds and rates. The 10-yr Note touched 3.33% last Thursday and touched 3.70% just a few days later. However, rates remain beneath where the 10-yr yield opened 2023 at 3.85%.

“We are going to react to the data” – Powell

Here the Fed Chair reminds the markets that last Friday’s Jobs report was strong, but backward looking and lagging while other economic indicators show signs of s slowdown. The Fed does not want to over hike rates into a slowing economy and be the reason for the recession. So, while the market is currently pricing in two more rate hikes and a rate cut in December, this story could quickly change once again.

Bottom line: Rates and inflation have peaked. Housing activity has jumped in the past weeks as a result. The incoming data will determine how much better rates can get in the next few weeks leading to the next Fed Meeting.

Looking Ahead

Next week’s CPI is a very important number. If it meets or comes in lower than expectations, we could see home loan rates revisit the levels seen last week right before the Jobs Report last Friday. We will also see the latest readings on housing and the strength of the consumer, by way of Retail Sales. As fast as the story changed when the strong jobs data hit, things can change quickly upon these reports.

Have you experienced property damage due to the 2022/2023 Winter Storms?

A federal emergency declaration has been proclaimed by President Biden and financial assistance may be forthcoming. While the federal government has not yet declared a disaster (a different designation that provides different resources) for California that could authorize direct financial assistance to affected residents.

Placer County requests those who have suffered damage to report it HERE.

If the issue is life threatening please dial 911. The intention of the survey is to allow the reporting of non-emergency issues during periods when the Emergency Operation Center is active. Your answers to the brief survey will help better document the extent of damage these storms have caused, so Placer County can continue to advocate for all available support for impacted residents.

With more weather still in the forecast, please use the Ready Placer Dashboard for the latest on road and weather hazards and to access resources to help protect your family and property.

Placer County Non-Emergency Reporting

Breaking News: CPI Report at 6.5%

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the monthly change in prices paid by U.S. consumers. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) calculates the CPIas a weighted average of prices for a basket of goods and services representative of aggregate U.S. consumer spending.

BY EPHRAIM SCHWARTZ
O’Dette Mortgage Group of Synergy 1 Lending
January 12, 2023

January’s CPI (consumer price index) inflation data was released this morning and came in right at expectations of 6.5%.   This is good news as it’s notably lower than December’s reading of 7.1%, and CPI inflation has now moved lower for 6 consecutive months, with the last 3 CPI reports being the real catalyst in mortgage rates lower.   While this 6.5% CPI figure remains notably higher than the Fed’s target of 2% inflation, today’s report was still good news in the context of how inflation/mortgage rate are recovering from the distortion created by the Fed’s red line full throttle bond purchase program during Covid, and all supply chain related Covid issues which are mostly in the rear view mirror.  Here’s some context to share with clients and what it all means for mortgage rates.

We’re currently in this interesting window of time where it’s valuable for real estate investors to understand that increases to the Fed Funds rate does NOT mean mortgage rates increase.   Sometimes reiterating the mechanics of what determines mortgage rates (bond prices, which have move significant been determine by 2 things in the past few years:  the Fed’s bond purchase program and inflation) can instigate the question of; “why does it matter if the Fed hiking the Fed Funds rate isn’t what drives mortgage rates higher, it seem they’re usually moving in the same direction?”, in other words – does it really matter if it’s correlation or causation?

Answer:  yes – very much so, and the current market is precisely why it’s so important to clearly communicate the differences & mechanics for clients.  As of November, we are now in a phase where the Fed will continue to hike the Fed Funds rate, while mortgage rates are moving lower.    This is key for those looking to capitalize on a real estate opportunity before mass market sentiment pendulums back.

Here’s what’s going on with inflation mortgage rates:   CPI, a primary measure of inflation, had peaked at 9.1% this past summer.   The Fed hikes the Fed Funds rates (short term consumer debts) to fight this inflation.   The November & December CPI reports both came in notably lower/better than the market expectation, this benefited bond prices, and therefore mortgage rates.    Since mid-November we’ve been talking about how; unless we got surprisingly bad news on inflation in the months ahead, it looks like mortgage rates peaked that first week in November.   Today’s CPI data coming in right at expectations further reinforces this trend.   To put into perspective, the 10 yr Treasury, which is what Jumbo mortgage rates follow, hit ~4.35% that last week of October, then had it’s best day of the year the same day the November CPI report came in lower than expectations, then again moved another leg lower after the December CPI data, and is settled in today at ~3.4%.    This is significant good news as we all know higher mortgage rates are part of the downward pressure on real estate prices, and vice versa.

We’re still seeing Jumbo rates today a bit lower than conforming, and the larger loan amounts actually pricing the best.   For example today, a ~$2.0M purchase with 20% down, can get a 30 yr fix in the 5%’s with no points, and as low as ~5.25% with a little over a point.   This is a historically healthy place for mortgage rates to be.

In sum, the headlines will soon again talk about rates moving higher when the Fed increases the Fed Funds rate again, which is coming, and meanwhile mortgage rates have already come down to a healthy level.

Tahoe Snowpack is Off to a Great Start

December has not disappointed as we embark on the winter season. In fact, the snowpack is off to a great start! According to the United States Department of Agriculture (“USDA”), snowpack in the Lake Tahoe Basin is nearly one month ahead of normal as of December 14, 2022. This is good news for the Tahoe region as the snow water content data shows. The Natural Resources Conservation Services SNOTEL (“NRCS SNOTEL”)  in the Lake Tahoe Basin tells us that often it’s just one or two months that make or break an entire winter!

In addition, temperatures are dipping at an all-time low. If you’re finding your electrical bills are running high, it may be because it’s pretty chilly! From October 23 to December 12 period alone, Tahoe City was the coldest since 1972 and third coldest on record since 1909.

 

 

Your Guideline to Short-Term Rental in Lake Tahoe

If you are looking to purchase a home to use as a short-term vacation rental (rental periods of less than 31 nights), you will be required to apply for a permit with the county in which the home is located. While Lake Tahoe falls into two different states, we have five different counties around the lake, that each have their own set of requirements and their own application processes. The guidelines have gone through numerous renditions and are always subject to change, so your best resources will be found on the county websites, organized below.

Let’s start with the counties. In the below map of Lake Tahoe, you will see four counties, with Truckee falling into both Placer County and Nevada County (detailed in the second map), and in some neighborhoods, it may even come down to what side of the road you live on! Northstar lies in Placer County, while Tahoe Donner is in Nevada County. The town of Truckee lies in Nevada County, which has additional restrictions, including that your home can not be short-term rented within one year of purchase.

Notably, many gated communities and some condo complexes and HOAs will not allow rentals for less than 31-day periods. If renting your home for short increments of time is a requirement for your purchase, this may dictate neighborhoods that you search in.

Some counties experience waitlists for permits. If renting your home is a necessary part of your purchase, you may want to call county offices to determine the waiting period.

Below, we provide links for more information on each county’s Short-Term Rental program and application process.

Placer County, CA

Short-Term Rental Program Information

Short-Term Rental Permit Application

Nevada County, CA (Town Of Truckee)

Short-Term Rental Program Information

Short-Term Rental Permit Application

El Dorado County, CA

Vacation Home Rental Program Information

Vacation Home Rental Permit Application

Washoe County, NV (Incline Village & Crystal Bay)

Short-Term Rental Program Information

Short-Term Rental Permit Application

Douglas County, NV

Vacation Home Rental Program Information

Vacation Home Rental Permit Application

 

Navigating the Path to Homeownership

UPCOMING EVENT

Want to buy a home in Tahoe/Truckee but not sure where to begin? Join Amie Quirarte with Tahoe Luxury Properties and Chelsy Delia with The Rice Team at Guild Mortgage for an informative presentation on Navigating the Path to Homeownership from two home-buying experts who will guide you on a path toward buying your first home.

BEST LAKE TAHOE SKIING: WHAT RESORT IS RIGHT FOR YOU

Play, Stay & Enjoy Lake Tahoe this Winter

Whether your getting out on the slopes for a short weekend getaway or a day trip, Lake Tahoe is famed for our expansive selection of downhill ski resorts boasting a variety of terrain, from some gentle broad slopes, some hilly hills and forested slopes or cross country. If you love the outdoors and are a fan of winter’s snow and cold, nothing beats skiing in Lake Tahoe. We have provided our favorite insider’s tips below to help you choose where to ski this winter.

Best Lake Views

Homewood Mountain Resort: Located on Tahoe’s magical West Shore, Homewood is a laid-back mountain that is known for its deep powder, well-spaced trees, and panoramic views of Lake Tahoe. With a mix of gentle beginner slopes to more intermediate and advanced runs, there’s something for everyone at Homewood. It’s certainly a hidden gem, not only for its lake views, but also its secret powder stashes on a snow day.

Diamond Peak: This family-friendly resort in Incline Village boasts world-class snowmaking and grooming, fun events for the whole family, and comprehensive lesson programs. Drink in dramatic views of Lake Tahoe from the sun deck of the Snowflake Lodge. Diamond Peak’s mid-mountain bar and eatery.

Plenty of Beginner Terrain

Boreal: Take 3, Ride Free at this small mountain with a big attitude on Donner Summit. When you purchase three lessons, you get a free season’s pass. Boreal is the only mountain in Tahoe/Truckee that offers night skiing. The onsite Woodward Indoor Park offers 33,000 square feet of ramps, foam pits, and trampolines; perfect for honing those ski and snowboard skills out of the elements.

Donner Ski Ranch: This historic mountain is family-owned and operated, and boasts some great terrain as well as affordable rates and a variety of lesson options. First time bringing the little ones out to ski? Take advantage of their $15 magic carpet pass with a $15 equipment rental to get the kiddos used to the sport.

Tahoe Donner Downhill Ski Resort: Tahoe Donner knows families. From affordable beginner packages to a helpful staff, Tahoe Donner knows how to make learning to ski and ride a family-friendly experience. It’s known as the best place to begin, with impeccable grooming, wide open slopes, and great beginner programs. Also, onsite are a number of eateries, weekly events, and a snow play area.

Advanced Terrain

Northstar California: Fun off-piste terrain, world-class terrain parks, and wide open groomers make Northstar a great destination for all levels of skiers and riders. The bustling village offers plenty of apres-ski events and specials – you may never want to leave!

Palisades Tahoe: Host to the 1960 Olympics, Palisades Tahoe is renowned for its varied terrain. Once two mountains, now merged, the resort offers a combined 6,000 acres of terrain. From wide-open bowls in the side-country to inbound cliffs and technical tree runs, advanced skiers (beginners and intermediate, too!) will love exploring this resort any day.

Sugar Bowl Ski Resort: Sugar Bowl is another family-owned and operated ski resort located on Donner Summit. Its high elevation means huge amounts of snowfall, and the uncrowded slopes and short lift lines make it a local’s favorite. The terrain varies from beginner to advanced. Intermediate and advanced skiers and riders will enjoy 1,650 acres of wide-open bowls, long groomers, and inbound cliffs and features that make this mountain unique.

Mt. Rose Ski Tahoe: Experience beautiful Lake Tahoe views, tons of powder, and over 1,200 acres of 70% intermediate-to-advanced terrain at Mt. Rose Tahoe. The base elevation of this mountain, which is conveniently located between Incline Village and Reno, is 8,250 ft. – the highest in Tahoe. High elevations means good snow in Tahoe, and Mt. Rose is fun for powder-hounds and groomer-heroes alike.

2022/2023 Resort Winter Skiing

The Lake Tahoe 2022/2023 ski season is here! While ski resort opening dates are always subject to weather and conditions, it sure does give us something to look forward to. As the nights get chillier, we start to envision our ski season ahead. So get your skis waxed and your gear ready because powder days are ahead!

Ski Resorts

Boreal Mountain Open Now

Experience the magic of Boreal’s sunset session every night! The Night Pass gives unlimited access to the mountain from 3:00pm – 8:00pm.

Mt. Rose Ski Tahoe Open Now

New this year: Estimated to be the largest capital improvement project in the resort’s history, the new Lakeview Express chairlift will be a key piece of Mt. Rose’s effort to enhance the overall experience in the “Lakeview Zone.” The plan includes trail additions, existing run improvements, and new skier traffic patterns, offering even greater access to beginner, intermediate and advanced terrain and help give skiers and snowboarders of all ability levels a more enhanced mountain experience.

Stay nearby

Northstar California & Heavenly Open Now

New this year: Celebrating their 50th anniversary, Northstar will open with the newly upgraded Comstock Express lift, now a high-speed 6-person chairlift. New passholder perk: With early lift access every Monday, Northstar passholders can load chairlifts at 8:30am for First Tracks on Monday, starting in December.

Stay nearby Northstar   Stay nearby Heavenly

Palisades Tahoe Open Now

New this year: A base-to-base gondola connects Palisades and Alpine. Guests will enjoy easy access to 6,000 acres of terrain. The 2.4 mile gondola ride will transport guests between The Village at Palisades Tahoe and the Alpine Lodge in 16 minutes, with the option for expert skiers and riders to unload at the KT-22 mid-station. The gondola is expected to be running by mid-December, weather permitting. Red Dog chairlift is replaced with a high-speed 6-seather and also is expected to open in December, weather permitting. Expanded mountaineer operations, plus snowmaking and lodge enhancements.

Stay nearby

Sugar Bowl Open Now

New this year: Sugar Bowl joins the Mountain Collective. The Sugar Rush snowtubing park will have a 400′ magic carpet accessing 10 lanes of tubing, plus a sweets station for kids and a bar for adults, open on weekends and holidays and some evenings.

Stay nearby

Diamond Peak Opens Thursday, December 8

New this year: New surface lift for the Child Ski & Ride Center, relocated terrain park, new RFID access gates, and guided after-hours snowshoe hikes.

Stay nearby

Homewood Mountain Resort Opens Friday, December 9

See first-hand why Homewood is “Where the Mountains Meet the Lake.” Two hundred eight steps from lift-to-lake gives Homewood an unbeatable lakeside skiing experience.

Stay nearby

Tahoe Donner Downhill Opens Friday, December 9

For nearly 50 years, Tahoe Donner Downhill Ski Resort has provided families a unique and affordable ski experience. Committed to being “the best place to begin” and offer ski instruction for children as young as 3 years old. Enjoy wide-open bowls, uncrowded slopes, gentle beginner terrain, and excellent grooming.

Stay nearby

Happy Skiing!