COMPLIMENTARY SPRING CLEANING FOR DOLLAR POINT PROPERTY OWNERS
Tag: Lake Tahoe real estate
Good Economic News is Good News
Interest rates hover near the best levels since September, despite several good economic readings reported. Let’s discuss what happened and see what is coming next week.
“Hey, alright now And don’t it feel good” – Walking on Sunshine by Katrina and the Waves
O’Dette Mortgage Group
January 30, 2023
Economy Grew to Finish 2022
Gross Domestic Product, a measure of economic growth, for the Fourth Quarter 2022 showed the economy expanded at a 2.9% annual rate, down slightly from the 3.2% rate in the Third Quarter 2022. Seeing the economy grow in the back half of 2022 after negative growth in the first half of 2022 is good news.
This positive reading elevates the chance of a “soft landing” by the Fed, where they hike rates to slow inflation but do not slip us into a recession.
Unemployment Line is Historically Short
Initial Jobless Claims for December came in at 186,000…the lowest reading in 9 months. This is also good news as it tells us the length of the unemployment line. If the amount of people signing up for first time unemployment benefits remains near historical lows, it further lowers the chance of a recession. Moreover, it highlights the continued strength in the labor market, and this is paramount as jobs buy homes. Yes, we want interest rates to move lower but if someone doesn’t have a job or is in fear of losing their job, they can’t commit to a home purchase. Let’s hope the labor market remains strong as the Fed continues to hike rates to slow demand and lower inflation.
New Home Construction Costs Coming Down
The National Association of Homebuilders reported that building materials costs, less energy, are up 8.3% which is a big increase annually. However, the price growth is down a staggering 60% as input costs increased over 16% in 2021.
We should expect input cost growth to slow further in response to slower demand and further reopening of supply chains. This is another positive theme as we move through 2023.
Smaller Fed Rate Hike Still Priced In
One of the headwinds to the economy is the threat of higher short-term rates by the Federal Reserve. The good news there? After four consecutive .75% rate hikes, followed by a .50% hike in December, the financial markets are fully pricing in a smaller .25% hike at next week’s Fed Meeting.
The markets also believe the Fed will raise rates by another .25% in March and then pause to allow all the hikes that date back to last summer to seep into the economy.
This means the Terminal Rate, or the fancy way of saying the peak in the Fed Funds Rate, is going to be in a range of 4.75- 5.00%. From there we will have to continue to watch the standoff between the Fed who says they want to keep rates higher for longer. Additionally, with no rate cuts this year versus the financial markets, which are starting to “price in” as many as two rate cuts later this year.
Bottom line: The economy is showing mixed signals, but the labor market remains strong, and we are nearing the end of Fed rate hikes. So, the plan to land the U.S. economy softly and avoid a deep recession remains very much in play. That is good news for housing and the economy.
Looking Ahead
Next week is Fed week. As of this moment, the markets fully expect the Fed to raise rates by .25%. Anything other than that would be a surprise and generate a lot of market volatility. The Fed generally looks to avoid sending the market mixed signals but the markets will be on edge.
The Winds of Change – 2022 Year in Review
Change is the only constant in life. After two years of a COVID-fueled buying frenzy that produced stratospheric price spikes across all segments of the market, 2022 brought a bucket of icy lake water on the head. A dramatic reversal of economic conditions fueled by the Ukrainian conflict, historic interest rate hikes, a crypto collapse, and the erosion of equities rippled through Tahoe real estate. For the first time since COVID, we saw a noticeable lack of urgency as buyers were willing to wait on investing in vacation homes. By mid-summer, both supply and days-on-market had distinctly increased. Gone were the days of multiple offers within days of listing homes and the manic-ness we experienced since the pandemic onset. By the third quarter, we saw a palpable calm in luxury real estate sales. In fact, only 11 single-family lakefront homes between Rubicon Bay and Incline Village sold all year, the lowest we have seen since before our reporting began in 2006. Yet, median price has been slow to respond. As a result, in 2022, each micro-region (with the exception of lakefronts due to small sample size), saw median price reach historic highs, while sales volume decreased significantly. The disparity between median price and demand, alongside uncertain market conditions, continues to contribute to buyers willing to remain on standby, waiting for market corrections and for economic indicators to improve confidence.
As sellers reset to the new normal, we expect buyers to start to again pull their paddles from beneath their chairs in 2023. For buyers who have been patiently awaiting value opportunities, 2023 should present well. While the selling environment is not as favorable as it has been over the past few years, sellers can still take advantage of the historic run-up in pricing from COVID. However, it will be imperative that sellers adjust expectations on pricing and time on market. As we close the chapter on the COVID-driven real estate binge, the winds of change will still blow in opportunities around Lake Tahoe.
Points of Interest: January – December 2022
- Single family homes sold decreased 19% year over year.
- Median price increased 7% year over year and is on a 7-year growth trend.
- Sales volume reached a 8-year low. Median price reached an historic high.
- 210 of 903 homes (23%) sold over $2 million.
Points of Interest: January – December 2022
- Single family homes sold decreased 10% year over year
- Median price increased 24% year over year and is on a 5-year growth trend.
- Sales volume reached a 6-year low. Median price reached an historic high.
- 210 of 903 homes (63%) sold over $2 million.
Navigating the Path to Homeownership
UPCOMING EVENT
Want to buy a home in Tahoe/Truckee but not sure where to begin? Join Amie Quirarte with Tahoe Luxury Properties and Chelsy Delia with The Rice Team at Guild Mortgage for an informative presentation on Navigating the Path to Homeownership from two home-buying experts who will guide you on a path toward buying your first home.
BEST LAKE TAHOE SKIING: WHAT RESORT IS RIGHT FOR YOU
Play, Stay & Enjoy Lake Tahoe this Winter
Whether your getting out on the slopes for a short weekend getaway or a day trip, Lake Tahoe is famed for our expansive selection of downhill ski resorts boasting a variety of terrain, from some gentle broad slopes, some hilly hills and forested slopes or cross country. If you love the outdoors and are a fan of winter’s snow and cold, nothing beats skiing in Lake Tahoe. We have provided our favorite insider’s tips below to help you choose where to ski this winter.
Best Lake Views
Homewood Mountain Resort: Located on Tahoe’s magical West Shore, Homewood is a laid-back mountain that is known for its deep powder, well-spaced trees, and panoramic views of Lake Tahoe. With a mix of gentle beginner slopes to more intermediate and advanced runs, there’s something for everyone at Homewood. It’s certainly a hidden gem, not only for its lake views, but also its secret powder stashes on a snow day.
Diamond Peak: This family-friendly resort in Incline Village boasts world-class snowmaking and grooming, fun events for the whole family, and comprehensive lesson programs. Drink in dramatic views of Lake Tahoe from the sun deck of the Snowflake Lodge. Diamond Peak’s mid-mountain bar and eatery.
Plenty of Beginner Terrain
Boreal: Take 3, Ride Free at this small mountain with a big attitude on Donner Summit. When you purchase three lessons, you get a free season’s pass. Boreal is the only mountain in Tahoe/Truckee that offers night skiing. The onsite Woodward Indoor Park offers 33,000 square feet of ramps, foam pits, and trampolines; perfect for honing those ski and snowboard skills out of the elements.
Donner Ski Ranch: This historic mountain is family-owned and operated, and boasts some great terrain as well as affordable rates and a variety of lesson options. First time bringing the little ones out to ski? Take advantage of their $15 magic carpet pass with a $15 equipment rental to get the kiddos used to the sport.
Tahoe Donner Downhill Ski Resort: Tahoe Donner knows families. From affordable beginner packages to a helpful staff, Tahoe Donner knows how to make learning to ski and ride a family-friendly experience. It’s known as the best place to begin, with impeccable grooming, wide open slopes, and great beginner programs. Also, onsite are a number of eateries, weekly events, and a snow play area.
Advanced Terrain
Northstar California: Fun off-piste terrain, world-class terrain parks, and wide open groomers make Northstar a great destination for all levels of skiers and riders. The bustling village offers plenty of apres-ski events and specials – you may never want to leave!
Palisades Tahoe: Host to the 1960 Olympics, Palisades Tahoe is renowned for its varied terrain. Once two mountains, now merged, the resort offers a combined 6,000 acres of terrain. From wide-open bowls in the side-country to inbound cliffs and technical tree runs, advanced skiers (beginners and intermediate, too!) will love exploring this resort any day.
Sugar Bowl Ski Resort: Sugar Bowl is another family-owned and operated ski resort located on Donner Summit. Its high elevation means huge amounts of snowfall, and the uncrowded slopes and short lift lines make it a local’s favorite. The terrain varies from beginner to advanced. Intermediate and advanced skiers and riders will enjoy 1,650 acres of wide-open bowls, long groomers, and inbound cliffs and features that make this mountain unique.
Mt. Rose Ski Tahoe: Experience beautiful Lake Tahoe views, tons of powder, and over 1,200 acres of 70% intermediate-to-advanced terrain at Mt. Rose Tahoe. The base elevation of this mountain, which is conveniently located between Incline Village and Reno, is 8,250 ft. – the highest in Tahoe. High elevations means good snow in Tahoe, and Mt. Rose is fun for powder-hounds and groomer-heroes alike.
2022/2023 Resort Winter Skiing
The Lake Tahoe 2022/2023 ski season is here! While ski resort opening dates are always subject to weather and conditions, it sure does give us something to look forward to. As the nights get chillier, we start to envision our ski season ahead. So get your skis waxed and your gear ready because powder days are ahead!
Ski Resorts
Boreal Mountain Open Now
Experience the magic of Boreal’s sunset session every night! The Night Pass gives unlimited access to the mountain from 3:00pm – 8:00pm.
Mt. Rose Ski Tahoe Open Now
New this year: Estimated to be the largest capital improvement project in the resort’s history, the new Lakeview Express chairlift will be a key piece of Mt. Rose’s effort to enhance the overall experience in the “Lakeview Zone.” The plan includes trail additions, existing run improvements, and new skier traffic patterns, offering even greater access to beginner, intermediate and advanced terrain and help give skiers and snowboarders of all ability levels a more enhanced mountain experience.
Stay nearby
Northstar California & Heavenly Open Now
New this year: Celebrating their 50th anniversary, Northstar will open with the newly upgraded Comstock Express lift, now a high-speed 6-person chairlift. New passholder perk: With early lift access every Monday, Northstar passholders can load chairlifts at 8:30am for First Tracks on Monday, starting in December.
Stay nearby Northstar Stay nearby Heavenly
Palisades Tahoe Open Now
New this year: A base-to-base gondola connects Palisades and Alpine. Guests will enjoy easy access to 6,000 acres of terrain. The 2.4 mile gondola ride will transport guests between The Village at Palisades Tahoe and the Alpine Lodge in 16 minutes, with the option for expert skiers and riders to unload at the KT-22 mid-station. The gondola is expected to be running by mid-December, weather permitting. Red Dog chairlift is replaced with a high-speed 6-seather and also is expected to open in December, weather permitting. Expanded mountaineer operations, plus snowmaking and lodge enhancements.
Stay nearby
Sugar Bowl Open Now
New this year: Sugar Bowl joins the Mountain Collective. The Sugar Rush snowtubing park will have a 400′ magic carpet accessing 10 lanes of tubing, plus a sweets station for kids and a bar for adults, open on weekends and holidays and some evenings.
Stay nearby
Diamond Peak Opens Thursday, December 8
New this year: New surface lift for the Child Ski & Ride Center, relocated terrain park, new RFID access gates, and guided after-hours snowshoe hikes.
Stay nearby
Homewood Mountain Resort Opens Friday, December 9
See first-hand why Homewood is “Where the Mountains Meet the Lake.” Two hundred eight steps from lift-to-lake gives Homewood an unbeatable lakeside skiing experience.
Stay nearby
Tahoe Donner Downhill Opens Friday, December 9
For nearly 50 years, Tahoe Donner Downhill Ski Resort has provided families a unique and affordable ski experience. Committed to being “the best place to begin” and offer ski instruction for children as young as 3 years old. Enjoy wide-open bowls, uncrowded slopes, gentle beginner terrain, and excellent grooming.
Stay nearby
Happy Skiing!
JUST SOLD: 558 Valley Drive
I had the honor of representing the buyer of this three bedroom, two bathroom Incline Village gem.
With filtered lake views and acres of forest landscape to bask in, this is the ultimate mountain home paradise! Plus, Incline Village offers incredible community amenities to meet every outdoor lifestyle. Congratulations to both parties!
- 3 BR, 2 BA
- 2,280 sq/ft
- Sale Price $1,650,000
JUST SOLD: 1587 Squaw Valley Road #19
I had the honor of representing the seller of this 2 bedroom, 2 bathroom Olympic Valley condo with panoramic and unobstructed views of the Valley and the ski hill. It’s no wonder it went for $127k over asking within a day on the market. Congratulations to both parties!
- 2 BR, 2 BA
- 988 sq/ft
- Sale Price $852,000
Just Sold: 13010 Heidi Way
I had the honor of representing the buyer of this 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom Truckee mountain home in an ideal setting the balances a shaded forest with the warmth of the season and hiking out your back door on the Tahoe Donner trail system. Congratulations to both parties!
- 3 BR, 2 BA
- 1,534 sq/ft
- Sale Price $950,000
Price Reduction: 171 Edgewood Drive
171 Edgewood is a prime example of luxuriating in style in this classic North Lake Tahoe home where you can enjoy making lasting family memories for years. Located in one of the most sought-after neighborhoods, Dollar Point brings exclusive amenities. Premier HOA includes a private beach, pier, buoy field, tennis courts, and pool. Become a Tahoe local and start your dream lifestyle in time for the epic Fall season.
This property features an ease of single-level living with a sense of comfort and relaxation throughout. Vaulted ceilings with gorgeous wood beams bring height and warmth. Upgrades include new floors, paint, heating, AC, fireplace, lighting, and a new deck with a sunken hot tub. Plenty of ample space to store everything you need for the outdoors in the two-car garage.
- 3 BR / 2 BA
- 1,855 sq/ft
- Listed at $1,850,000
