Mid-Year 2024 Market Report from The Q Group

Market Rebounds and Inventory Surges

In the first half of 2024, unit sales volume rebounded from the lows of 2023. All micro-regions saw an uptick in the number of single-family homes sold; however, the growth still leaves sales volume below pre-covid norms.

On the California side of the basin, median price decreased by 7% year-over-year. All other micro-regions saw an increase in median price. Most increases were under 20%, however quite noticeably, the median price of lakefronts jumped 78%. In the month of June, we had 25 single-family lakefront homes actively listed for ale between Incline Village and Rubicon Bay, a 66% inventory increase year-over-year, and the most active lakefronts we have seen in a single month since August 2019.

Market-wide, we see a 27% increase in inventory, offering buyers a greater selection of properties to choose from. After a few years of disruption, we now see the market shift towards an improved equilibrium between supply and demand.

The Q Take

Overall, the data points to a recovering and stabilizing market, with increased inventory offering more opportunities for buyers and a notable demand for premium properties driving significant price increases in specific segments.


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For more information on the Lake Tahoe real estate market, contact Amie Quirarte.

Q1 Market Report from The Q Group

2024 Starts Off with a Bang

Lake Tahoe real estate starts the year off with a bang! Quarter One saw sales volume rebound from Q1 2023 lows. In all micro-regions, the number of single-family homes sold increased year over year, with growth rates ranging from 35% to 131%.

Inventory remains low, while the demand for homeownership in Tahoe remains high, despite high interest rates. Properties that are appropriately and strategically priced are moving quickly, and the buyer pool is anxiously awaiting the influx of listings we typically see each year when the snow begins to melt.

  • Single-family homes sold increased 42% year over year.
  • Median price decreased 16% year over year.
  • Average Days on Market was 100 days, a 43% increase from 2023.
  • 5 of 37 homes (14%) sold for over $2 million. 1 homes (2%) sold above $5 million.
  • Single-family homes sold increased 131% year over year.
  • Median price increased 45% year over year, reaching a record high.
  • Average Days on Market was 140 days, up only one day over 2023.
  • 19 of 30 homes (63%) sold for over $2 million. 4 homes (13%) sold above $5 million.
  • Single-family homes sold increased 37% year over year.
  • Median price increased 8% year over year, nearing the 2022 record high.
  • Average Days on Market was 75 days, a 9% increase from 2023.
  • 32 of 129 homes (25%) sold for over $2 million. 6 homes (5%) sold above $5 million.

 

For more information on the Lake Tahoe real estate market, contact Amie Quirarte.

Q3 2023 Lake Tahoe Real Estate Market Update

Lake Tahoe Real Estate Market Update

In the first three quarters of 2023, all micro-regions with the exception of lakefronts continued to show a deep decline in the number of single-family homes sold. In fact, sales volume this year has hit decade lows. Median price has been far less impacted and, in all micro-regions, sits above pricing in 2021. The supply of available homes for sale remains at about half of pre-covid levels, which at least partially explains the retention of values. With a late start to summer, after our historic winter, lakefront sales began to rebound in Q3 but still hover around the lows we saw in 2009, yet median price reached a record high. In Incline Village & Crystal Bay, 14% of single-family homes sold above $5 million.

The ongoing discrepancy between the dramatic dip in sales volume compared to the minor movement in median price reminds us that post-covid pricing may be the new normal, despite slow sales. A burst in September real estate activity balanced the sluggish start to the season and is signaling a recovery of unit sales. Now, all eyes are on Q4 as we anticipate this fall momentum will bring a strong finish to the season, equalizing Q1.

  • Single-family homes sold decreased 15% year over year, hitting a 14-year low.
  • Median price increased 4% year over year.
  • Average Days on Market was 44 days. In 2021, DOM was 37. In 2019, DOM was 77.
  • 32 of 178 homes (18%) sold for over $2 million. 8 homes (4%) sold above $5 million.
  • Single-family homes sold decreased 14% year over year, hitting a 12-year low.
  • Median price decreased 10% year over year.
  • Average Days on Market was 119 days. In 2021, DOM was 86. In 2019, DOM was 166.
  • 56 of 99 homes (57%) sold for over $2 million. 14 homes (14%) sold above $5 million.
  • Single-family homes sold decreased 25% year over year, hitting a 14-year low.
  • Median price decreased 4% year over year.
  • Average Days on Market was 44 days. In 2021, DOM was 27. In 2019, DOM was 66.
  • 114 of 531 homes (21%) sold for over $2 million. 36 homes (7%) sold above $5 million.

 

For more information on the Lake Tahoe real estate market, contact Amie Quirarte.

FED HIKES RATES FOR 10TH TIME

BY EPHRAIM SCHWARTZ
Partner, Mortgage Consultant CMPS
O’Dette Mortgage Group
May 8, 2023

This past week the Federal Reserve raised rates for the 10th time in a little over a year. Let’s discuss what happened as we await yet another Fed rate hike next Wednesday.

“Was it something I said or something I did? Did the words not come out right?” Every Rose Has Its Thorn by Poison.

The Last Hike?

As we expected, the Federal Reserve raised the Fed Funds Rate to a range of 5.00% – 5.25%. Remember, this interest rate affects short-term loans like credit cards, autos, and home equity lines of credit.

The big question is whether this will be the last hike. When the Fed statement was released, the markets believed the Fed was signaling a pause by omitting the following line from the previous statement: “The Committee anticipates that some additional policy firming may be appropriate.”

However, shortly after the statement was released, Fed Chair Powell hosted a press conference and right at the top said the Fed Members have not discussed a “pause” in rates. Bottom line? Expect more uncertainty and volatility as it relates to rates.

Sound And Resilient

This is the term Fed Chair Powell used to describe the banking sector. Unfortunately, we are seeing more banks have issues. This week it was First Republic taken over by JP Morgan Chase and as of this writing PacWest was said to be “exploring strategic options.” The fear of banking contagion has elevated uncertainty in the financial markets. It’s not clear if and how many more banks will continue to have issues. Bottom line? The fear of this story has created a “safe haven” to trade into bonds where prices move higher, and rates move lower.

European Central Bank Hikes By Less

The European Central Bank (ECB) hiked their benchmark rate by .25%, the smallest since the start of their hiking cycle. Like our Fed, they too signaled they would be “data-dependent” going forward, leading markets to speculate a pause on future rate hikes.

Bottom line: The Federal Reserve is sending mixed messages on the future direction of rates. Meanwhile, long-term rates, which the Fed doesn’t control, are near their best levels in months and sense all the uncertainty in our economy will prompt the Fed to pause and potentially cut rates later this year. The incoming data and issues in the banking system will determine what happens next.

Looking Ahead

Expect market volatility to continue next week. The Consumer Price Index (inflation) will be reported. If this number comes in higher than expected, rates could rise. The opposite is true. Despite this being a backward-looking number, we will have Fed officials continue to speak and comment on the release and how they feel it impacts future Fed policy and interest rate decisions.

 

THE MORNING: THE FED’S UNPLEASANT CHOICE

Good morning. The Fed must choose between two unpleasant options today. It’s a reminder of the high cost of weak bank oversight.

The Federal Reserve building. Haiyun Jiang/The New York Times
BY DAVID LEONHARDT
The New York Times
March 22, 2023

Inflation — or turmoil?

The Federal Reserve faces a difficult decision at its meeting that ends this afternoon: Should Fed officials raise interest rates in response to worrisome recent inflation data — and accept the risk of causing further problems for banks? Or should officials pause their rate increases — and accept the risk that inflation will remain high?

This dilemma is another reminder of the broad economic damage that banking crises cause. In today’s newsletter, I’ll first explain the Fed’s tough call and then look at one of the lessons emerging from the current banking turmoil. Above all, that turmoil is a reminder of the high costs of ineffective bank regulation, which has been a recurring problem in the U.S.

The Fed’s dilemma

The trouble for the Fed is that there are excellent reasons for it to continue raising interest rates and excellent reasons for it to take a break. On the one hand, the economic data in recent weeks has suggested that inflation is not falling as rapidly as analysts expected. Average consumer prices are about 6 percent higher than a year ago, and forecasters expect the figure to remain above 3 percent for most of this year. That’s higher than Fed officials and many families find comfortable. For much of the 21st century, inflation has been closer to 2 percent.

An inflation rate that remains near 4 percent for an extended period is problematic for several reasons. It cuts into buying power and gives people reason to expect that inflation may stay high for years. They will then ask their employers for higher wages, potentially causing a spiral in which companies increase their prices to pay for the raises and inflation drifts even higher. Today’s tight job market, with unemployment near its lowest level since the 1960s, adds to these risks. The economy still seems to be running hotter than is sustainable.

This situation explains why Fed officials had originally planned to continue raising their benchmark interest rate at today’s meeting — thereby slowing the economy by increasing the cost of homes, cars and other items that people buy with debt. Some Fed officials favored a quarter-point increase, which would be identical to the increase at the Fed’s meeting last month. Others preferred a half-point increase, in response to the worrisome recent inflation data.

The banking troubles of the past two weeks scrambled these plans. Why? In addition to slowing the economy, higher interest rates depress the value of many financial assets (as these charts explain). Some bank executives did a poor job planning for these asset declines, and their balance sheets suffered. When customers became worried that the banks would no longer have enough money to return their deposits, a classic bank run ensued. It led to the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank, and others remain in jeopardy.

If Fed officials continue raising their benchmark rate, they risk damaging the balance sheets of more banks and causing new bank runs. That’s why a half-point increase now seems less likely. Some economists (including The Times’s Paul Krugman) have urged the Fed to avoid any additional increases for now. Many analysts expect the Fed will compromise and raise the rate by a quarter point; Jason Furman, a former Obama administration official, leans toward that approach.

The decision is unavoidably fraught. The Fed must choose between potentially exacerbating problems in the financial markets and seeming to go soft on inflation.

Why bailouts happen

All of which underscores the high cost of banking crises. In most industries, a company’s collapse doesn’t cause cascading economic problems. In the financial markets, the collapse of one firm can lead to a panic that feeds on itself. Investors and clients start withdrawing their money. A recession, or even a depression, can follow.

These consequences are the reason that government officials bail out banks more frequently than other businesses. Bailouts, of course, have huge downsides: They typically use taxpayer money (or other banks’ money) to subsidize affluent bank executives who failed at their jobs. “Nobody is as privileged in the entire economy,” Anat Admati, a finance professor at Stanford University’s business school, told me.

During a crisis, bailouts can be unavoidable because of the economic risks from bank collapses. The key question, then, is how to regulate banks rigorously enough to minimize the number of necessary bailouts.

Over the past few decades, the U.S. has failed to do so. After the financial crisis of 2007-9, policymakers tightened the rules through the Dodd-Frank Act. But Congress and the Trump administration loosened oversight for midsize banks in 2018 — and Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank were two of the firms that stood to benefit.

As complicated as finance can be, the basic principles behind bank regulation are straightforward. Banks require special scrutiny from the government because they may receive special benefits from taxpayers during a crisis. This scrutiny includes limits on the risks that banks can take and requirements that they keep enough money in reserve to survive most foreseeable crises. “You make sure they have enough to pay,” as Admati put it.

Bank executives and investors often bristle at such rules because they reduce returns. Money held in reserve, after all, cannot be invested elsewhere and earn big profits. It also can’t go poof when hard times arrive.

Fed Chair is Back After Strong Jobs Report

After last week’s surprisingly strong Jobs Report, Fed Chair Jerome Powell spoke about the economy and direction of rates. Let’s walk through what happened and what to watch in the week ahead.

“Cause I’m Back, Yes, I’m Back” – Back in Black by AC/DC.

“The strong Jobs Report shows you why we think this will be a process that takes a significant period of time.” Fed Chair Powell 2/7/23.

BY EPHRAIM SCHWARTZ
Partner, Mortgage Consultant CMPS
O’Dette Mortgage Group
February 14, 2023

 

The Federal Reserve has a dual mandate, which is to maintain price stability (inflation) and promote maximum employment. On the inflation front, it appears inflation has indeed peaked and is on the decline. The Fed Chair reiterated the “disinflationary process” has begun. This is a positive development for the economy, housing, and long-term rates.

On the labor market front of the Fed’s mandate, the Fed in its desire to slow demand and thus inflation, wants to see some unemployment. The good news/bad news? Last week, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported the unemployment rate at 3.4%, the lowest in 53 years…that is good news. The bad news is it means the Fed will look to raise rates by .25% in March and another .25% in May, thereby lifting the Fed Funds Rate above 5.00%.

This renewed outlook for a higher Fed Funds Rate has elevated uncertainty and volatility in long-term rates, which move up and down based on economic conditions and inflation, both of which are easing and a reason why long-term rates are lower than short-term rates.

“Likely to see some softening in labor market conditions” – Powell

This is a reasonable assumption considering the number of planned layoffs announced this year, while we sit at multi-decade low unemployment, it seems like up is the only direction for unemployment.

Soft Landing Back in Play

Due to the current strength of the labor market, there is a growing chance the Fed can raise rates and lower inflation towards its 2.00% target without triggering a deep recession.

History has shown that recessions do not take place with unemployment at 4% or below without some sort of surprise shock to the economy.

Let’s hope the Fed is not too successful in “creating” unemployment because if it quickly rises, the idea of a soft economic landing could go away quickly too.

3.70%

As we mentioned, long-term rates have responded negatively to last week’s strong jobs report, because good news is bad news for bonds and rates. The 10-yr Note touched 3.33% last Thursday and touched 3.70% just a few days later. However, rates remain beneath where the 10-yr yield opened 2023 at 3.85%.

“We are going to react to the data” – Powell

Here the Fed Chair reminds the markets that last Friday’s Jobs report was strong, but backward looking and lagging while other economic indicators show signs of s slowdown. The Fed does not want to over hike rates into a slowing economy and be the reason for the recession. So, while the market is currently pricing in two more rate hikes and a rate cut in December, this story could quickly change once again.

Bottom line: Rates and inflation have peaked. Housing activity has jumped in the past weeks as a result. The incoming data will determine how much better rates can get in the next few weeks leading to the next Fed Meeting.

Looking Ahead

Next week’s CPI is a very important number. If it meets or comes in lower than expectations, we could see home loan rates revisit the levels seen last week right before the Jobs Report last Friday. We will also see the latest readings on housing and the strength of the consumer, by way of Retail Sales. As fast as the story changed when the strong jobs data hit, things can change quickly upon these reports.

Breaking News: Today’s CPI Inflation

BY EPHRAIM SCHWARTZ
Partner, Mortgage Consultant CMPS
O’Dette Mortgage Group
February 14, 2023

 

The all important CPI (consumer price index) inflation came out this morning and mixed news; the year over year January CPI report fell to 6.4%, which was a hair lower than last month’s 6.5% – which is good, but higher than market expectations of 6.2% – which could have been better.

Reminder inflation is the arch enemy of bond prices, and therefore mortgage rates, and the reason we’ve seen mortgage rates improve since what appears to have been the peak in November is because inflation has been coming down.   CPI peaked last summer at 9.1%, and has since been steadily decreasing.  It was the November & December CPI reports coming in lower than market expectations that were the impetus for mortgage rates improving over the past few months, and then last months data at 6.5% came in right at expectations, so today’s report was much anticipated and bucked the prior three month trend and came in higher than expectations.

Looking at the numbers from a month over month perspective, which is arguably the most relevant in measuring present trend, the month over month figure was up 0.5%, which was up from 0.1% last month.   Shelter (housing) is the biggest factor here increasing 0.7%, making up the majority of the month over month numbers.  National housing costs are not coming down.

This month’s jobs & CPI reports are now behind us, the labor marker remains very strong, and inflation is moving lower, albeit slowly.  Inflation creeping lower is good, but as expected we should not expect a straight-line drop in prices, and there will be slower and outright pauses in declines going forward.

As a result of this morning’s CPI report, bond yields/mortgage rates have ticked a hair higher.   See chart below of the 10 yr T, which jumbo rates are based on, for a graphical context.  As you can see, rates peaked first week in November, have since come down a bit, and now giving up a bit of ground.

 

 

Regarding conversations with clients; 30 yr fixes in the 6%’s with option of getting into the 5% with points, is a healthy “normal” place for them to be, and still well below historical long term averages.  We’re still seeing jumbo rates notably lower than conforming (approx ~.625%  .75%).   Lastly, even after rates have improved, considering grossing up a sale price & requesting a seller credit can still be a good strategy to get buyers into not just a more palatable rate, but one that is really quite good and a loan they may hold for as long as they’re in the property.

Good Economic News is Good News

Interest rates hover near the best levels since September, despite several good economic readings reported. Let’s discuss what happened and see what is coming next week.

“Hey, alright now And don’t it feel good” – Walking on Sunshine by Katrina and the Waves

BY TERESA O’DETTE & EPHRAIM SCHWARTZ
O’Dette Mortgage Group
January 30, 2023

Economy Grew to Finish 2022

Gross Domestic Product, a measure of economic growth, for the Fourth Quarter 2022 showed the economy expanded at a 2.9% annual rate, down slightly from the 3.2% rate in the Third Quarter 2022. Seeing the economy grow in the back half of 2022 after negative growth in the first half of 2022 is good news.

This positive reading elevates the chance of a “soft landing” by the Fed, where they hike rates to slow inflation but do not slip us into a recession.

Unemployment Line is Historically Short

Initial Jobless Claims for December came in at 186,000…the lowest reading in 9 months. This is also good news as it tells us the length of the unemployment line. If the amount of people signing up for first time unemployment benefits remains near historical lows, it further lowers the chance of a recession. Moreover, it highlights the continued strength in the labor market, and this is paramount as jobs buy homes. Yes, we want interest rates to move lower but if someone doesn’t have a job or is in fear of losing their job, they can’t commit to a home purchase. Let’s hope the labor market remains strong as the Fed continues to hike rates to slow demand and lower inflation.

New Home Construction Costs Coming Down

The National Association of Homebuilders reported that building materials costs, less energy, are up 8.3% which is a big increase annually. However, the price growth is down a staggering 60% as input costs increased over 16% in 2021.

We should expect input cost growth to slow further in response to slower demand and further reopening of supply chains. This is another positive theme as we move through 2023.

Smaller Fed Rate Hike Still Priced In

One of the headwinds to the economy is the threat of higher short-term rates by the Federal Reserve. The good news there? After four consecutive .75% rate hikes, followed by a .50% hike in December, the financial markets are fully pricing in a smaller .25% hike at next week’s Fed Meeting.

The markets also believe the Fed will raise rates by another .25% in March and then pause to allow all the hikes that date back to last summer to seep into the economy.

This means the Terminal Rate, or the fancy way of saying the peak in the Fed Funds Rate, is going to be in a range of 4.75- 5.00%. From there we will have to continue to watch the standoff between the Fed who says they want to keep rates higher for longer. Additionally, with no rate cuts this year versus the financial markets, which are starting to “price in” as many as two rate cuts later this year.

Bottom line: The economy is showing mixed signals, but the labor market remains strong, and we are nearing the end of Fed rate hikes. So, the plan to land the U.S. economy softly and avoid a deep recession remains very much in play. That is good news for housing and the economy.

Looking Ahead

Next week is Fed week. As of this moment, the markets fully expect the Fed to raise rates by .25%. Anything other than that would be a surprise and generate a lot of market volatility. The Fed generally looks to avoid sending the market mixed signals but the markets will be on edge.

The Winds of Change – 2022 Year in Review

Change is the only constant in life. After two years of a COVID-fueled buying frenzy that produced stratospheric price spikes across all segments of the market, 2022 brought a bucket of icy lake water on the head. A dramatic reversal of economic conditions fueled by the Ukrainian conflict, historic interest rate hikes, a crypto collapse, and the erosion of equities rippled through Tahoe real estate. For the first time since COVID, we saw a noticeable lack of urgency as buyers were willing to wait on investing in vacation homes. By mid-summer, both supply and days-on-market had distinctly increased. Gone were the days of multiple offers within days of listing homes and the manic-ness we experienced since the pandemic onset. By the third quarter, we saw a palpable calm in luxury real estate sales. In fact, only 11 single-family lakefront homes between Rubicon Bay and Incline Village sold all year, the lowest we have seen since before our reporting began in 2006. Yet, median price has been slow to respond. As a result, in 2022, each micro-region (with the exception of lakefronts due to small sample size), saw median price reach historic highs, while sales volume decreased significantly. The disparity between median price and demand, alongside uncertain market conditions, continues to contribute to buyers willing to remain on standby, waiting for market corrections and for economic indicators to improve confidence.

As sellers reset to the new normal, we expect buyers to start to again pull their paddles from beneath their chairs in 2023. For buyers who have been patiently awaiting value opportunities, 2023 should present well. While the selling environment is not as favorable as it has been over the past few years, sellers can still take advantage of the historic run-up in pricing from COVID. However, it will be imperative that sellers adjust expectations on pricing and time on market. As we close the chapter on the COVID-driven real estate binge, the winds of change will still blow in opportunities around Lake Tahoe.

Points of Interest: January – December 2022

  • Single family homes sold decreased 19% year over year.
  • Median price increased 7% year over year and is on a 7-year growth trend.
  • Sales volume reached a 8-year low. Median price reached an historic high.
  • 210 of 903 homes (23%) sold over $2 million.

Points of Interest: January – December 2022

  • Single family homes sold decreased 10% year over year
  • Median price increased 24% year over year and is on a 5-year growth trend.
  • Sales volume reached a 6-year low. Median price reached an historic high.
  • 210 of 903 homes (63%) sold over $2 million.

Q3 / 2022 Lake Tahoe Real Estate

Market Update

In the first three quarters of 2022, each micro-region saw a decrease in the number of single-family homes sold. While some micro-regions have continued to see slow growth in median price, other micro-regions have started to see a decline in pricing.

The combination of the decline in sales volume and the shifting of price indicates that market activity is slowing. The expectation is that the median price will follow but is slower to react, as sellers still aim for the pricing the market waws garnering in the first half of the year.

Increased interest rates may also impact buyer activity. Most significantly, we see a noticeable lack of urgency in stark contrast to the buying frenzy of COVID years, as people continue to watch the market and economic indicators. Buyers who have been sitting on the sidelines may find their opportunity to take advantage of their new leverage.

Tahoe Sierra MLS

Single-family homes in California on Lake Tahoe’s North and West Shores, plus all of Truckee, Northstar, Olympic Valley and Alpine Meadows.

Points of Interest

  • Single-family homes sold decreased 23% year over year.
  • Median price increased 5% year over year and is on a 7-year growth trend.
  • Sales volume reached a 6-year low.
  • 170 of 712 homes (24%) sold over $2 million.

North & West Shores

Single-family homes in the Lake Tahoe Basin in California including Tahoe’s North and West Shores, as well as Alpine Meadows and Olympic Valley.

Points of Interest

  • Single-family homes sold decreased 34% year over year.
  • Median price decreased 1% year over year.
  • Sales volume reached a 10-year low.
  • 49 of 209 homes (23%) sold over $2 million.

Incline Village & Crystal Bay

Single-family homes in Incline Village, NV and Crystal Bay, NV.

Points of Interest

  • Single-family homes sold decreased 38% year over year.
  • Median price increased 25% year over year and is on a 7-year growth trend.
  • Sales volume reached a 5-year low.
  • 74 of 115 homes (64%) sold for over $2 million.

Lakefronts

Single-family lakefront homes located between Rubicon Bay, CA and Incline Village, NV.

Points of Interest

  • Single-family homes sold decreased 67% year over year.
  • Median price decreased 28% year over year.
  • Sales volume reached a record low (16 years of data).
  • 8 of 8 homes (100%) sold for over $2 million.

Truckee

Single-family homes in Truckee including Downtown Truckee, Glenshire, Prosser, Tahoe-Donner, Donner Lake, Donner Summit, Sierra Meadows, Old Greenwood, Northstar, Martis Camp & Lahontan.\

Points of Interest

  • Single-family homes sold decreased by 16% year over year.
  • Median price increased by 9% year over year and is on a 7-year growth trend.
  • Median price reached an historic high. Sales volume is the second lowest in 6 years.
  • 121 of 503 homes (24%) sold for over $2 million.